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Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank. The S&P 500 Index gained 17.4% during the first half of 2019—an excellent performance—even though a decent chunk of those gains reversed the 2018 fourth quarter losses. Putting that six-month performance into perspective, it was the best start to a year for the stock market since 1997, and its tenth-best start since 1950. This week we recap the first half and analyze prior strong starts to see what we might expect in the second half of 2019.

We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year. Stocks already have had quite a run in 2019, buoyed by a return to fundamentals, with the S&P 500 Index up 17.4% year to date through June 28 for an 18.5% total return. The decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause rate hikes was the catalyst for the reversal, as market participants no longer feared that the Fed might unnecessarily restrict growth. U.S. economic data also have generally supported a continued economic expansion, while businesses continue to find ways to effectively navigate the environment. Generally upbeat first-quarter corporate earnings results gave investors another fundamental reason to bid stocks higher.

Almost two-and-a-half centuries ago, fifty-six great Americans signed the Declaration of Independence. It was a document that would change the world, but after the Revolutionary War ended, it languished in relative obscurity for many years. In fact, to many, the Declaration was merely a simple letter that had served its purpose. A historical artifact and nothing more...

These next two weeks are pivotal for the global economy. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy meeting starts June 18 with a policy announcement due June 19. In the following week, global leaders will convene at the G-20 Summit in Japan, and we’ll likely get clues on the state of the U.S.-China trade talks.

If someone were to put you in a room and force you to do nothing but read headlines and predictions, you’d probably get whiplash. That’s because there’s always so much conflicting information and analysis out there about what’s happening, or what’s going to happen. The result is a lot of uncertainty – and if there’s one thing the markets hate, it’s uncertainty.

Last week stocks enjoyed their best week since November 2018 despite rampant policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty remains high, particularly around trade, but you wouldn’t know it from last week’s stock market rally, which jumped 4.4% on increasing hopes for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. That jump brought the S&P 500 Index to within 2.5% of its April 30 record high. However, that doesn’t mean stocks are in the clear as the trade conflict with China continues.