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Tax season – the period between January and April 15, when most people file their taxes – is often a hectic time. But this year’s tax season is special. It’s been a little over a year since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went into effect. As the largest overhaul of the tax code since 1986, the still-relatively-new law could have a major impact on your taxes, including your refund. For that reason, I thought it would be good to review what the law changed, as well as what you can do to minimize headaches as you file your taxes ahead of the April 15 deadline.

The rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index gained for the seventh week out of the past eight, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index, and Nasdaq all closed higher for the eighth consecutive week. Sparking the rally this week were Washington striking a deal to avoid another government shutdown and hopes that President Trump might push back the March 1 deadline on higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

Deteriorating confidence over the last several months has soured the economic landscape. About four months ago, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reached an 18-year high. Since then, the gauge has dropped about 18 points, its biggest three-month decline since 2011. Sentiment’s swift decline has caused some to wonder if a drop in confidence could be self-fulfilling, as lower confidence could weigh on consumer spending, and consequently, on output. Historical data show that the U.S. economy has entered a recession an average of 19 months after a peak in consumer confidence, and a drop in sentiment has been a warning sign for past economic cycles [Figure 1].

The United States celebrates a very special birthday this month. No, I’m not referring to George Washington’s or Abraham Lincoln’s, important as those are. I’m referring to the 100-year anniversary of the Grand Canyon being named a national park.

2019 is off to a roaring start, as the S&P 500 Index gained 7.9% for its best January since 1987. Stocks’ strong January comes on the heels of the worst December in 87 years. What happens now? This week we will discuss why we see signs that point to higher prices, why the easy gains have likely already occurred, and what several key hurdles lie ahead

The Fed will likely pause interest rate hikes at its policy meeting this week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets this week, culminating in its rate decision on Wednesday, January 30. We expect the Fed to pause in response to slower global growth, trade tensions, and market volatility, although we believe at least one and possibly two more rate hikes are likely before the end of the cycle. At the same time, we recognize the possibility that the Fed’s December hike may have been its last.