It’s been a rough fourth quarter for the markets. It seems like week after week, the major indexes – like the Dow and S&P 500 – get hammered by volatility. These days, just about every news website you can find is packed with breathless headlines about plummeting stocks, photos of nervous-looking traders, and editorials about a possible bear market in 2019. . .
For about a week after Thanksgiving, market volatility was like the rest of us – sleepy and stuffed with turkey. The markets themselves took advantage, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all posting their biggest weekly gains in years.1 And on Monday, after President Trump announced a tariff “ceasefire” between the U.S. and China, the Dow rose 288 points...
While the broad outline of a negotiating period was a positive takeaway from the trade agreement between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit, details remain elusive. Headlines following the meeting signaled a meaningful cooling of tensions as the Trump administration put a hold on further tariff increases during the negotiating period, and both sides raised their commitment to making progress on key issues. However, conflicting details contained in official statements and administration comments from both sides reminded markets of the potential challenges to finding common ground. Both sides continued to express optimism that a deal can be reached, and we remain optimistic as well; however, a number of tricky hurdles remain, and negotiations, even if successful, are likely to go through rough patches as both sides push for the best possible deal.
Last week, dovish language from the Federal Reserve (Fed) fueled one of the strongest rallies in U.S. stocks this year. On November 28, the S&P 500 Index posted its biggest daily gain since March and the U.S. dollar dropped the most in two weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said current interest rates are “just below neutral,” referring to the point where monetary policy is neither accommodative nor restrictive for the economy.
Corporate America produced another outstanding earnings season. We expected another quarter of strong earnings growth, and corporate America delivered even more than we anticipated. Third quarter numbers were excellent, even if the boost from the new tax law is excluded, as has been the case throughout this year. Revenue and earnings upside compared with expectations was particularly impressive, making prior assertions of an earnings growth peak premature. We’re also impressed by the resilience of companies’ outlooks in the face of tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
Thanksgiving has always been about being thankful for what you have. Even before it was set as an official holiday, it was a centuries-old tradition to have a feast celebrating a good harvest, victory in battle, or some other momentous occasion.
