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Publications, Insights, & News

Manufacturing Health at 14-Year High

Strong manufacturing growth is a bellwether for overall economic health. Even though manufacturing is a dwindling part of domestic output, accounting for about 12% of gross domestic product (GDP), strong manufacturing growth has consistently preceded significant phases of GDP growth. Because of this, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey is one of the gauges we monitor in our Recession Watch Dashboard. Over its past five cycles, the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession an average of 46 months after the ISM index peaked [Figure 1].

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Longest Bull Market In History

The fastest. The strongest. The first. The longest. It’s exciting whenever a new record gets set. It makes us feel like we’re witnesses to something important, something historic. Something we can tell our grandchildren about. And now, we can add a new record to the list. . .

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Labor Day

It’s easy to treat Labor Day as little more than the last summer holiday. As one more opportunity to visit the lake. As a day for barbecues or sipping lemonade on the hammock. After all, Labor Day lacks the historical traditions of Independence Day, the gravity of Memorial Day, or the religious significance of Christmas, Easter, or Chanukah. It’s just not quite as important. Right?

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Powell's Policy Pragmatism

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, served as a fitting complement to the minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting. Both Powell’s comments and the minutes reinforced the Fed’s strong case for hiking rates for the third time this year when it meets in September, an outcome the markets are largely expecting [Figure 1].

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Back to Basics

Many people, young and old, don’t have a will, let alone a broader estate plan. Yet an estate plan is important, even for families who are not wealthy. . .

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