Publications, Insights, & News

After months of relative quiet, the trade war between the U.S. and China has erupted again in a big way. The markets are the most immediate casualty, with the Dow plunging over 600 points on Monday alone.1 In all likelihood, you’re probably more focused on things like spring cleaning, your upcoming summer plans, and the end of Game of Thrones. My job in this letter is to briefly explain what’s going on, what matters, what doesn’t, and why you can go back to focusing on those other things.

U.S.-China trade tensions escalated last week. President Trump increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to the United States from 10% to 25% and has threatened to put 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods—a process that could begin this week, though it would take a couple of months to implement.

This is a tribute for the mothers who sat in rocking chairs for hours on end soothing a crying baby. For all the mothers who ran carpools, made cookies, and sewed Halloween costumes. This is for the mothers whose priceless art collections were left hanging on their refrigerator doors. . .

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. This week, we tackle this commonly cited seasonal pattern, and why some seasonal weakness could make sense in 2019. . .

We’ve finally closed the book on what was one of the most perplexing quarters of this expansion. In January and February 2019, economic data took an unexpected turn as trade and political headwinds weighed on global demand. Tensions then subsided in March, and signs of a rebound started to appear. . .

U.S. stocks are sitting at the same levels they were seven months ago, but the path hasn’t been straight. Equity investors have been on a bumpy ride since September 2018, and investors’ resolve has been tested amid back-and-forth in trade negotiations, a historic government shutdown, Brexit, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) U-turn in policy, and signs of a global slowdown.